A Miami Herald article published September 23 indicates that Hispanic voters in Florida are maintaining their traditional allegiance to the Republican Party. The Miami Herald reports that, according to a Miami Herald/St. Petersburg Times/Bay News 9 polled released September 21, Senator John McCain leads Senator Barak Obama by 10 percentage points among Hispanics in Florida. A Mason-Dixon poll released on September 23 gave McCain a 6 percentage point lead among Hispanics. The reporters use these poll results to state that Hispanics continue to vote for the G.O.P. and are, therefore, more likely to vote for Senator McCain in November. The poll results are also shown here.
These polling results, while important for Florida, should not be extrapolated to Latino communities in other states. It should be noted that the Miami Herald/St. Petersburg Times/Bay News 9 poll had a margin of error of 10.6 points, a number greater than the McCain-Obama spread. Therefore, that poll is somewhat unreliable. The other poll results are within the margin of error. More important than the polls, Latinos represent are very diverse community, especially in Florida where Latinos account for nearly 17% of the population.
According to U.S. Census Bureau data taken as of 2000, Hispanics accounted for 16.8% of the population of Florida. As is well known, the majority of Hispanics in Florida are of Cuban origin, constituting 31% of Latinos in Florida. Immigrants from Mexico are the next largest Latino demographic at 13.6%, followed by Puerto Ricans who comprise 18% of Florida's Latino populace. As of the 2000 Census, Central and South American immigrants made up approximately 18% of Latinos in Florida.
Each of these nationalities has disparate needs and interests. Latino political interest groups typically point to immigration as the issue that is motivating Latino voters in the 2008 election cycle. According to the Pew Hispanic Center, Latino voters for whom immigration is the primary motivating factor tend to lean Democratic.
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